April 17, 2025

Market volatility persisted, but cotton prices were more or less unchanged by the week’s end. The ongoing trade war remained a focal point, while economic concerns led to losses in the stock market. What’s ahead for cotton as we move into another week of uncertainty? Get QuickTake’s read on the week’s events in five minutes.

The cotton market remained volatile this week, but prices gained ground for three consecutive days.

• July futures settled modestly higher at 67.13 cents per pound, up 13 points for the week.
• First Notice Day for the May contract is next Friday, April 24. May futures ended the week slightly lower, settling at 66.32 cents per pound, down 15 points.
• Volatility in the cotton market persisted this week as traders navigated a complex economic and political landscape. Futures prices posted three consecutive days of gains, supported in part by a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed trade discussions with key cotton-importing countries. While concerns over trade tariffs remain, the U.S. appears to be actively negotiating new agreements. Meanwhile, the Cotton On-Call report continues to show an imbalance. While this is expected to narrow as First Notice Day approaches, some of the May contracts may be rolled to July, potentially keeping an imbalance on the report until the July contract expires. Speculators remain net short, but some short covering appeared this week as key technical levels were tested.
• Planting is progressing well across Central and South Texas, with the southernmost areas already completed. Recent rainfall has benefited the crops already in the ground, and storms are expected over the weekend. West Texas received some rain, but the amounts were minimal. While the forecast shows slim chances for precipitation in the coming week, there is a slight possibility of moisture across parts of West Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas.
• Trading volumes were lighter heading into the long weekend. Open interest dropped sharply by 33,615 contracts to 219,974, marking its lowest level since July 2024. Certified stocks remained unchanged at 14,488 bales.

Stock market volatility persisted, with continued losses as investors navigated the trade war and the potential economic fallout for the U.S., compounded with a tech-heavy sell-off.

• The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the seventh time since last June, bringing the deposit rate down to 2.25%—a total reduction of 175 basis points in 10 months. While the ECB expressed increased concern about downside risks to economic growth, it also noted that the disinflation process remains on track.
• U.S. retail sales surged in March, hitting a 26-month high with a 1.4% month-over-month increase and a 4.6% gain year-over-year. Sales of clothing and accessories rose 0.4% from February and 5.4% compared to last year. Some analysts speculated that consumers may be buying ahead of potential tariffs to offset future price increases on imported goods.
• The U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low last week, making U.S. commodities more attractive to foreign buyers and supporting prices. Meanwhile, crude oil prices have edged higher after significant losses, providing additional support for commodities.

U.S. export sales were strong, and shipments remained above average for the week ending April 10.

• For the 2024/25 marketing year, U.S. merchants sold 202,000 Upland bales and shipped 328,200. New crop sales of 65,900 bales were made. Mills were more active during the price dip in the reporting period. Both sales and shipments remain above the level needed to meet the USDA’s recently lowered export projection of 10.9 million bales.
• Pima merchants booked 2,400 bales and shipped 6,700, keeping Pima sales and shipments above the pace needed to reach USDA’s estimates.

The Week Ahead

Market uncertainty is expected to continue in the coming days, and next week will be relatively quiet regarding data. Aside from the Crop Progress Report and Export Sales Report, no cotton-specific reports are on the schedule.

Announcements

• Enrollment for the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol is open for 13 more days through April 30, 2025. Currently enrolled growers will need to renew their membership to continue their involvement in the program. Click here to see a list of enrollment dates. 
• New Grower Enrollment for Better Cotton will be open March 3-May 30.
• For assistance or questions about enrolling in these programs, contact PCCA at 806-763-8011.

The Seam

As of Thursday afternoon, grower offers totaled 82,876 bales. During the week, 5,118 bales were traded on the G2B platform at an average price of 62.62 cents per lb. The average loan was 52.71, which resulted in a premium of 9.91 cents per lb. over the loan.

For a list of terms commonly used in Cotton QuickTake, click here.