How Farmers and Meteorologists Work Together to Battle Unpredictable Weather Patterns
Jacob Riley, Chief Meteorologist, KLBK News
One of the most significant battles farmers fight in agriculture is the weather, a relentless and unpredictable enemy that shapes the success or failure of crops. From droughts to floods, heatwaves to frosts, the weather directly impacts planting, growing, and harvesting, making it a central focus in production agriculture.
Understanding the role of weather in agriculture leads us to how meteorologists utilize advanced tools and data to predict these crucial weather patterns. Weather forecasting is a blend of science, technology, and human intuition. According to Jacob Riley, Chief Meteorologist at KLBK News, meteorologists rely significantly on data. To create accurate forecasts, meteorologists analyze what the models predict and current weather conditions like drought, temperature trends, and precipitation levels.
“We look at a lot of data; specifically, we look at numerical weather prediction models,” explained Riley. We use different complex math formulas and plug in other variables that we get from weather stations, sensors on the ground, and weather balloons that we launch into the atmosphere. We plug those into the initial circumstances into these equations, and then a supercomputer solves them. It gives us an estimated guess as to what will happen in the future, but it’s our job as meteorologists to know the different biases. That’s where our job is crucial.”
The Mesonet system is a unique tool in weather forecasting, especially in the Southwestern U.S. Mesonet is a network of weather stations constantly collecting real-time data on various weather parameters. Riley explained that his team uses Mesonet data daily to understand regional weather conditions. These stations collect an array of data, such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, soil moisture, and rainfall. The Mesonet provides localized data, allowing meteorologists to see how weather conditions differ from one area to another,
which is especially important in regions with varying topography and climate conditions.
“The purpose of the Mesonet System is to provide these local community-type stations with accurate weather measurements from all around the region so that people get a good understanding of what the weather’s actually like in their areas,” Riley said. “One thing that I know is good that they provide for farmers are those eight-inch soil temperatures, which are important for moisture purposes, temperature purposes, and other things like that.”
Future Weather Predictions
Given the weather trends over the past few years, the Southwestern U.S. is well-acquainted with what the weather predictions might look like in the short-term future. In 2024, we experienced active moisture patterns and extreme temperatures. This year brought significant variability, with more active weather patterns and high-pressure systems keeping us dry. The summer months were marked by heatwaves, with occasional relief provided by rainfall. Toward the end of 2024 and going into next year, we can expect a colder December and a warmer January.
As we approach 2025, we will move into what is known as a La Niña pattern, which signals a trend toward below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures. Riley explained that this forecast, while not entirely welcoming news for agriculture, points toward a drier and warmer period throughout the year. Despite the inherent uncertainty in long-term weather predictions, there’s a considerable expectation that we will experience reduced rainfall or snowfall and temperatures that surpass historical averages. As we progress through the year and into next spring and summer, the weather is expected to shift toward a neutral phase, moving away from La Nina or El Nino conditions. Despite potential fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, the overall expectation is for weather conditions to normalize.
“From December of ‘24 through, say, February of ‘25, the overall trend, the average will be a little bit warmer than what we usually see based off of previous historical data, and it will be a little bit drier based off that data,” explained Riley. “As we head later into the year, especially in the growing season and the peak of the growing season next spring into summer, we start to transition back to a neutral phase, so it’s not La Nina or El Nino. What that can do for us is provide a sliver of hope for more rainfall with an active monsoon season. Of course, there will be times when we have more rainfall, just like through the winter. Even if it will be above-average temperatures or below-average precipitation, you’ll still have snow, cold, and rain spells. Overall, the average looks to get closer to normal as we head through the growing season next year, and in terms of getting close to the harvest season of 2025, we don’t know as of now. Still, hopefully, those trends will continue to provide us a little more hope that we’ll have actual rainfall.”
While weather remains an unpredictable and often daunting challenge for farmers, analyzing data, understanding trends, and predicting upcoming patterns enables farmers to make informed decisions, adapt to changing conditions, and better prepare for what lies ahead. As we move into 2025 and beyond, the partnership between agriculture and weather forecasting will continue to evolve, providing crucial insights that can help farmers navigate the uncertainties of Mother Nature and ultimately support the future of agriculture.
